UFC, PFL expert picks: Nurmagomedov and Sandhagen battle for title shot (2024)

All eyes will be on the main event in Abu Dhabi this Saturday as bantamweight standouts Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen will square off in a de facto title eliminator bout (3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+, with prelims at noon on ESPN2/ESPN+). Both fighters stated that the UFC assured them the winner would face whoever emerged as the bantamweight champion in the UFC 306 showdown between belt holder Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

Nurmagomedov (17-0), unranked by ESPN, could climb into the top 10 with a win over No. 3-ranked Sandhagen. Nurmagomedov has finished three of his past five opponents. Sandhagen (17-4) is on a three-fight winning streak, with his last win coming by way of unanimous decision over Rob Font last August.

There will also be MMA action Friday night as the PFL postseason begins (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 p.m. on ESPN+) with heavyweights and women's flyweights in action. The card at the Municipal Auditorium in Nashville, Tennessee, will be headlined by Denis Goltsov (34-8) facing Tim Johnson (18-9).

Brett Okamoto spoke to Red Hawk Academy MMA coach Tim Welch to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on both main events and other intriguing bets he likes on this weekend's cards.

UFC men's bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Cory Sandhagen

Tim Welch, Red Hawk Academy coach

How Sandhagen wins: Keep doing what you've been doing. He's moved over to Trevor Wittman as his coach for this one, so I'm curious to see what comes of that. But Sandhagen is already so good at switching stances and being unpredictable, and it's tough to take a guy like that down. He has good wrestling and timing, so it wouldn't surprise me if Sandhagen takes Umar to the ground. If he does that, Nurmagomedov will get back up, but those in-betweens could be good opportunities for Sandhagen to land something. Use his length as he always does, keep it in the center away from the fence and make Nurmagomedov pay when he throws those naked kicks he likes.

How Nurmagomedov wins: Nurmagomedov has never been in a five-round fight, and that's a big deal. His biggest key is to start with a good pace. He can't come out too hot. He needs slow, patient pressure and to cut off the cage. That's easier said than done against Sandhagen in a big Octagon, but standing at range and going tit-for-tat with Sandhagen on the feet is not a smart game plan. Patient pressure, get him to the fence, take him down and then do what the Nurmagomedovs do -- beat him up on the ground. If it were me, I would work a little on getting a punch in Sandhagen's face before throwing those high kicks. Then, use those high kicks to bring Sandhagen's hands up and get a good entry on the takedowns.

X factor: Sandhagen's experience going five rounds. He's very good at pacing himself. It looks like he knows how to breathe in there. Umar has had a lot of three-round decisions, but five rounds is a different story. If he comes out and makes this a sprint early, I could see Sandhagen taking over late.

Prediction: Sandhagen by decision.

Parker's betting analysis

Over 3.5 rounds. Sandhagen will take on arguably the most dangerous prospect in the division. Nurmagomedov is undefeated but has not fought anyone in the bantamweight top 10. He now takes on one of the best in the division. Sandhagen has only three losses in his UFC tenure and has been finished only once. He has great footwork, good defense, high fight IQ and seemingly unlimited cardio. As dangerous as Nurmagomedov has been, Sandhagen has been fighting the elite for a long time and doesn't go away so easily. I expect Sandhagen to strike from a distance while constantly fending off the wrestling of Nurmagomedov throughout the fight.

Parker's best bets across PFL and UFC this weekend

PFL heavyweight semifinal: Denis Goltsov vs. Tim Johnson

Goltsov to win inside the distance. Goltsov, a perennial contender, is arguably the favorite to win the season, and it starts with making a statement against this Bellator and UFC veteran. Johnson's power and strength will make this fight somewhat competitive in Round 1. But look for Goltsov to take over and dominate. I expect him to use his nasty jab and eventually take the fight to the floor, where he will get the finish.

PFL women's flyweight semifinal: Dakota Ditcheva vs. Jena Bishop

Ditcheva by KO/TKO. Jiu-jitsu ace Bishop, looking to derail the hype train surrounding Ditcheva, has to close the distance immediately and get the fight to the ground, where she would have the advantage. However, that is much easier said than done. Ditcheva has great takedown defense and uses striking to keep her distance. After many failed takedown attempts from Bishop, look for Ditcheva to take over and get the finish.

PFL women's flyweight semifinal: Taila Santos vs. Liz Carmouche

Santos to win by decision. Bellator champ Carmouche, looking to add another title to her resume, barely secured a spot in the PFL playoffs, getting an armbar submission win with 8 seconds to go in her final regular-season bout. In that fight with Kana Watanabe, I believe Carmouche got exposed. She was out-grappled and held down with little resistance or threat until the last seconds of the fight. Against Santos, I don't see another last-minute win happening. Look for Santos to close the distance and grapple Carmouche for the duration of the fight.

UFC middleweight: Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Magomedov to win by KO/TKO. "The Pirate" is getting a tailor-made opponent. Oleksiejczuk is on a two-fight losing streak and is a risk-it-all type of striker. That plays perfectly into Magomedov's style. Look for him to outclass and finish his opponent. Oleksiejczuk has solid power but leaves his chin exposed, getting rocked in almost every fight.

UFC light heavyweight: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield

Murzakanov to win. Menifield relies heavily on his power; when that doesn't work, he usually finds himself on the losing side. If he doesn't knock out Murzakanov early, Menifield is in for a difficult fight. Murzakanov is undefeated and very well-rounded. He can take this fight anywhere, and as long as he avoids the KO power, he should have no problem picking Menifield apart.

UFC men's bantamweight: Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo to win. "Chito" Vera is as durable as they get, with good striking. But he has poor takedown defense. Figueredo brings tremendous power on the feet, but he wins here with his wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Look for this fight to be similar to Figueiredo's last one in April, when he took Cody Gardbrandt down and submitted him. I expect Figueiredo to at least be able to out-wrestle Vera for three rounds.